There has been a lot of talk this week that House Blug Dogs may prove to be spoilers in the health care debate because of their concern that the legislation will cause the deficit to balloon. But Nate Silver, author of the blog FiveThirtyEight, thinks many Blue Dogs might be more receptive to health care reform than many would think.
The reason is that the uninsured rate in the majority of Blue Dog districts is above the national median uninsured rate of 14.6 percent. Silver looked at Gallup poll data in the 48 congressional districts that Republican presidential candidate John McCain won in 2008, but which also elected a Blue Dog Democrat as their congressman or woman. He found that 31 of those districts reported uninsured rates above the median. Constituents in the district that elected Rep. Dan Boren, D-Okla. had the highest uninsured rate of the group, with 25.8 percent saying they don't have health insurance.
Click here for the chart and story.
Silver suggested that if those Democratic members representing districts with higher uninsured rates choose to vote against the Democrats' health care bill, the public should look into how heavily the members were lobbied and "then check to see if they're still in office four years hence."
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