What, if any, effect will Sen. Arlen Specter's party switch have on the contentious "card check" battle? At this point, interest groups on both sides of the debate are dismissing any substantial influence the shift could have on the legislation.
In March, Specter announced he wouldn't support the Employee Free Choice Act despite having supported it in the past, and in his statement Tuesday he emphasized that his position on the bill "will not change."
As National Journal's Kirk Victor recently wrote (subscription), labor activists believe that as the bill moves closer to a vote, the president will "use his political capital to bring around a handful of wavering senators to prevail." Could Specter, who has gotten the full endorsement of the White House since moving across the aisle, be one of those senators?
Vice President Joe Biden said (subscription) Wednesday that even though he hasn't talked to Specter recently about the legislation, he believes that the senator would have "an open mind" about voting for some version of the bill if a compromise emerges.
Glenn Spencer, who runs the U.S. Chamber of Commerce's anti-EFCA initiative, doesn't think that's likely to happen. "It's no secret that he has some ideas on labor law reforms," Spencer said. "But I don't know if Specter is willing to compromise on this bill."
Justin Wilson, managing director of two anti-EFCA organizations (Employee Freedom Action Committee and the Center for Union Facts) led by lobbyist Richard Berman, is confident that Specter will stick to his official statements.
"I don't think [the party switch] changes the overall downward trajectory of this bill," Wilson said. "Specter was pretty clear that he's not going to be an automatic 60th vote."
The pro-EFCA American Rights At Work does not plan to change its strategy in light of Specter's announcement. Group spokesman Josh Goldstein said he had been "greatly disappointed" when Specter turned against the bill, but that neither the senator's March announcement nor this week's party switch affected the group's strategy. "We will continue to work with him," Goldstein said, but the group does not have plans yet to ramp up efforts to influence him.
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